If your child announced the goal to never make a mistake again, how soon would the cute innocence disappear as she obsessed over every failure? How long should this preoccupation with impossible pursuits last before concerned parties secure psychiatric help?

We have this very delusion gnawing on the Federal Aviation Administration's Administrator Jane Garvey, but no one seems willing to address the dementia. To be fair, Ms. Garvey contracted the affliction from former Department of Transportation Secretary Fredrico Pena, which proves these outbreaks must be halted at once, before they contaminate the population.

To quote Administrator Garvey, "We don't have 'acceptable losses' at FAA for the simple reason that no loss is acceptable to us or the American public. Our goal is for the aviation industry to incur no losses at all." (Source: Professional Pilot magazine, March 1998, page 85.)

Is there a sane reader who believes it is possible to eliminate all mistakes in an industry as complex as aviation? What does Madam Administrator do if she refuses to accept a loss -- deny that accidents exist and pretend the event never happened? Does this philosophy display a sound grasp on reality? Jane Garvey is foisting impossible goals upon the public. It is irresponsible and leads to even bigger government and increasingly restrictive regulations. Whenever there is motion there is risk. Aviation can not reach zero accidents. Flying will always suffer from human shortcomings.

There are, lies, damned lies, and statistics, so believe what you will of the following. "General aviation is getting safer - personal flying accidents decreased 3.7 percent, business flying accidents decreased 14 percent, and fatal accidents decreased 3 percent in 1997. Total accidents occurred at a rate of 7.51 per 100,000 hours of flying, fatal accidents occurred at a rate of 1.42 per 100,000 hours. Those rates reflect the lowest level of both fatal and total accident rates since record-keeping began in 1938. Noted Bruce Landsberg, executive director of AOPA Air Safety Foundation, 'The military knows that with a certain level of operations, they can expect some damage. We can always try to make it better, but with increased exposure, there will always be some element of accidents. That's what good training is all about - making sure it's not you.'" (Source: Flight Training Magazine, May 1998, page 14.)

Roy Norris, formerly of Raytheon Aircraft, Cessna and Gulfstream has it right. "Nothing so terrifies industry or produces more costly and ineffective change than a government agency, responding under political pressure, perceived or real, that feels it has to do something....We need to apply a general 'litmus test' to any proposed national safety action plan -- we must ask if the goals are realistic, if the strategy is correct, if the required resources (funds) are available and if the returns are acceptable for the investment required....I have never seen any government initiative that did not involve increased regulation and taxes." (Source: Professional Pilot magazine, April 1998, page 79.)

"Professionals are people who do the right thing, even when they don't feel like doing so," opined Jim Hall, chairman, National Transportation Safety Board. (Professional Pilot, April 1998, page 75.) Pro pilots have more on the line than anyone. It is their fanny first at the scene when something goes wrong, and their career which is jeopardized by unworkable laws or complex procedures. When the pro pilot speaks, it's usually worth the listen.

Ted Mendenhall, of Gulfstream Aerospace observes that the traditional (and Ms. Garvey's) definition of safety is "the absence of accidents." Mr. Mendenhall believes the aviation industry instead needs to adopt a more pragmatic (read: practical) approach to safety by asking itself, "Are we certain our flight operations are resistant to the natural hazards they are exposed to...." (Aviation International News, April 1998, page 66.)

Or, as advised another safety consultant, "The strategy must be to avoid those dangers right from the beginning or, because that is not 100% possible, to minimize them to an acceptable level." (Bruno Gantenbrink, Soaring Magazine, May 1998, page 31.)

Preliminary data show that 41,907 highway fatalities made up 94.1% of the total transportation fatalities for 1996. For anyone wishing to improve the safety of travel in the US., there are better places to focus than aviation. (AOPA 1998 Aviation Fact Card, AOPA Pilot April 98, page 128.)

The professionals understand the facts of life. Accidents, like taxes, will always be with us. The challenge is to minimize the exposure to risk. Ms. Garvey's failure to understand this reality proves true the quote from DOT's crash test mannequins Vince and Larry. "You could learn a lot from a dummy."

Happy (con)trails. See you upstairs --

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